The pound experienced a day of modest losses on Monday as investor attention narrowed on the developments from the early election campaigning. The day began with data showing that construction had shrank for the sixth month in a row, with the sustained slowdown being fuelled by the political uncertainty of Brexit. This is expected to continue into November as we have passed the previous do-or-die deadline, and now face the uncertainty of a general election.
We are now just five weeks away from the beginning of the voting, and Boris Johnson is currently ahead in the early polls. However, there is the threat of the Brexit Party challenging them in the Leave heartlands, whilst fighting the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats in pro-remain areas. The likelihood that this will be a very close run race has increased. Sterling implied volatility has started to rise again as a result.
15:00 – USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct); expected to increase to 53.4 from previous 52.6.