Rational Thinking - US Inflation Falters

Last week:GBP

  • Parliament resumed after Easter recess
  • Cross-party Brexit talks re-opened
  • Reports that May could push for a 4th vote on her withdrawal agreement
  • March of the Brexit Party
  • SNP announce plan for a second independence referendum

USD

  • Inflation falters overshadowing strong US 1st quarter growth
  • GDP increased at 3.2% vs 2% estimate
  • Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation only increased 1.3% vs 1.8% expectation
  • U.S. durable goods rose 2.7% after 1.1% drop in February

This week: GBP

  • BOE Meeting and Interest Rate decision; expected to be unchanged at 0.75%

EUR

  • GDP (YoY) & (QoQ) for Q1; 1.1% and 0.3% respectively
  • CPI (YoY); 1.6% against previous of 1.4%

USD

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (April); 54.8 against a previous of 55.3
  • Fed Meeting and Policy statement; interest rate unchanged at 2.5%
  • Average hourly earnings; 3.4% against a previous 3.2%
  • Nonfarm payroll; 180k jobs created against a previous reading of 196k
  • ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Apr); 57.2 against previous of 56.1