News and Analysis

Market News and Analysis

09/06/2021

Market report: Brexit tensions weigh on pound

GBP Sterling continued its descent against the euro and dollar on Tuesday as investors soured on the currency. This follows EU threats to impose sanctions on UK exports to Northern Ireland. The bloc’s stated they’re willing to act “firmly and resolutely” if the UK reneges on its commitments to implementing the Northern Ireland protocol. The warning was sent by Maros Sefcovic, […]

07/06/2021

Market report: dollar falls as job numbers miss the mark

USD The dollar fell against the euro and pound on Friday afternoon after softer than expected employment numbers. Despite forecasts of 650,000, US Non-Farm payrolls (NFP) only hit 559,000 in May, rising from 278,000 in April. Non-farm payrolls cover the 80% of the US workforce employed in manufacturing, construction and goods. Many analysts expected a significant NFP rebound to show a […]

03/06/2021

Market report: end of lockdown looms to boost pound

GBP Sterling was on the front foot on Wednesday as optimism grows that all Covid-19 restrictions will be lifted on June 21. The pound had dropped earlier this week amid concerns the date could be pushed back.  Despite rising infection rates, the government believes the vaccines are keeping people out of hospitals and controlling the spread of the virus. […]

02/06/2021

Introducing the brand new RationalFX employee benefits package

Here at RationalFX, we’re entering a really exciting phase. With global expansion and international partnerships and new products. A lot of that has been years in the making but only pushed over the line in the last year. To do that in a year like no other, with our people working from home, is nothing short […]

02/06/2021

Market report: lockdown rumours weaken pound

GBP The pound had rough start to the month yesterday as fears around a delay to the full relaxation of covid restrictions in England grew. Scotland has already announced a pause to their plans. Headlines have been dominated by an increase in ‘Indian variant’ cases and warnings from senior medical advisors around easing restrictions on June 21. This is all […]

01/06/2021

Market report: pound holds firm against hawkish comments

The pound held firm against the euro and dollar on Monday after hawkish comments by the Bank of England’s (BoE) Gertjan Vlieghe.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member believes a rate hike could be needed in 2022. This is especially notable as Vlieghe is normally more dovish than other members. That said, markets are fully pricing in a move to 0.25% by November 2022 but a further hawkish repricing may see that shift towards Q3 2022. 

27/05/2021

Market report: pound in need of a boost

Recent volatility around sterling eased on Wednesday as the currency traded within recent ranges against the euro and dollar. Having been one of the year’s best performing currencies, sterling appears to have stagnated as it awaits fresh impetus. Analysts are suggesting future good news, like the end of lockdown on June 21st, has already been absorbed into the price.

26/05/2021

Market report: dollar worst major currency of the quarter

USD The dollar is now this quarter’s worst performing major currency. This is in stark contrast to the euro, the strongest performer, which is up around 4% against the dollar. Several factors are weighing on the dollar. Investors still believe the US Federal Reserve’s insistence it will not taper its bond-buying operations anytime soon, even if inflation rises above […]

25/05/2021

Market report: a good month for the pound and euro

The pound has been the second best performing currency in the G10 over the past month. This is largely down to the UK’s ongoing exit from lockdown, which is on track to be completed by June 21. The rapid acceleration of the Eurozone’s vaccine programme has boosted the currency against most of its major competitors. It’s now the only G10 currency to outperform the pound over the last month.

24/05/2021

Market report: pound holds strong against dollar

GBP Strong economic data and growing confidence that all restrictions could be lifted by June 21st sees the pound continuing to perform well against most major currencies. Nowhere is this clearer than against the dollar, where the pair reached an almost three year high on Friday.  Friday’s retail sales data came in well above expectations at 9.2% after non essential shops […]

21/05/2021

Market report: dollar drops back to multi-month lows

USD The dollar dropped back to near multi-month lows yesterday. This followed a brief bounce on Wednesday caused by the release of US Federal Reserve meeting minutes which suggested tapering government bond purchases if the pandemic recovery continued.  Now it seems the market has judged the Fed will take its time to taper, needing to see sustained positive data […]

20/05/2021

Market report: pound falls despite upbeat inflation data

GBP Sterling fell against the euro and dollar on Wednesday despite UK inflation data beating expectations. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation year on year surpassed expectations of 1.4% to read 1.5%. While the month on month figure met expectations to read 0.6%. Both readings […]

19/05/2021

Market report: pound holds steady after inflation data

GBP The pound remained relatively unmoved this morning after the release of key inflation data was in line with Bank of England (BoE) expectations. The recent market consensus was that inflation data would be more influential than it had previously been. But as there were no big surprises, no major shift for sterling occurred.  UK CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in […]

18/05/2021

Market report: Relaxed restrictions good news for pound

GBP Lockdown eased further across Britain yesterday, with indoor dining back on the menu and travel to selected countries permitted. Hopes for the economy heightened in response.  However, economists are looking over their shoulders as cases of the Indian variant continue to rise. Secretary of State for Health, Matt Hancock, yesterday told the House of Commons there were now 2,323 […]

17/05/2021

Market report: High hopes for the pound as lockdown eases

GBP The pound is set for a busy week, as the release of key data coincides with further the easing of lockdown.  This is on top of last week’s Bank of England meeting where GDP growth forecasts were upgraded, a position now being cemented elsewhere. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg also upped their 2021 growth forecasts to 6%, the largest mark up since 1973. This puts […]

14/05/2021

Market report: Indian variant could impact pound

GBP Sterling retracted from recent high against the euro and dollar on Thursday as market sentiment shifted from risk-on to risk-off. The adjustment follows a good spell for sterling, which has been the week’s strongest performing currency. Market relief over the Scottish election, further easing of lockdown restrictions and the Bank of England raising its […]

13/05/2021

Market report: US could be forced into rate hike

USD Highly anticipated US inflation data was released yesterday. This was of great interest to investors who had grown increasingly nervous about growing inflationary pressures at home and abroad.  It wasn’t good news. Data showed the inflation rate jumped to a 13-year high. And it was a similar story for core inflation, which rose by 0.9%, the highest […]

12/05/2021

Market report: pound stays strong against dollar

GBP Sterling’s recent gains against the dollar continued yesterday, ending a third consecutive day at multi-week highs.  The rally was mainly down to persistent dollar weakness and a vague sense of political calm. Encouraging news regarding the pandemic is also having an impact. Covid cases are dropping rapidly and lockdown restrictions are easing further this Monday, both boosting the pound. This […]

11/05/2021

Market report: pound hits two month high vs dollar

GBP The pound hit a two month high against the dollar yesterday, up 1.1%, as upbeat economic forecasts and an easing lockdown mixed with dollar weakness to bolster the pound. The dollar has struggled over the last few days following Friday’s disappointing job numbers. This is in contrast to the pound where further re-opening of the UK services sector is expected to […]


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