On Friday the non-farm payroll numbers from the U.S. came in almost exactly in-line with estimates with 164K new jobs created for the month of July and the Unemployment Rate stayed constant at a low 3.7%. The employment snapshot underscored mounting risks to the economy as President Donald Trump boosts tariffs on Chinese goods, threatening already-suffering factories and stores.
While overall payroll gains were healthy in July, retail employment dropped for a sixth straight month to a three-year low amid fierce competition from online sellers. At factories, already in a technical recession thanks to global weakness and the trade war, average weekly hours worked sank to the lowest since 2011.
Trump’s levies and China’s retaliatory actions have hit goods producers hardest, with businesses paying higher costs, delaying expansion and hiring fewer people. The latest tariffs would expand that impact to consumers, who are driving the expansion, with a 10% tax on an additional $300 billion in goods including electronics and clothing.
15:00 – USD: ISM non-manufacturing PMI forecast to increase to 55.5