GBP

Sterling still remains vulnerable to risk appetite as the war in Ukraine continues. The pound continued to fall against both the US dollar and euro yesterday as a result of news that Russia has requested military assistance from China.

Yesterday, new figures showed UK wage growth failed to keep up with the rising cost of living between November and January. Wages rose but, when taking rising prices into account, regular pay showed a 1% fall from the previous year according to the Office for National Statistics. It comes amid concerns that the war in Ukraine will push up households’ energy and food bills even further.

The data also show that the number of jobless people in the UK has dropped below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in the most recent quarter, while job vacancies hit another record high. However, the rising cost of food, energy and household goods has pushed inflation to a thirty year high. Prices surged by 5.5% in the twelve months to January, up from 5.4% in December.

Apart from the geopolitical tensions, interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE) is more of a focus this week. The BoE have hiked their interest rates by 25 basis points twice in December and February. The BoE is more likely to follow the rate hike streak this time too and push the benchmark rates to 0.75%.

USD

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will sanction a series of rate hikes are underpinning the US currency. The latest decision will be released on Wednesday with rates expected to increase by 0.25%.

Key announcements

15:15 – EUR – ECB President Lagarde speaks