Rational Thinking – Theresa May Loses Another Key Brexit Vote

This week:
GBP

14th Feb saw May lose in Parliament again, this time 303 votes to 258
Eurosceptics abstained on government motion as it appeared to rule out a no deal
Market investors continue to worry about May’s ability to persuade government lawmakers
Weaker than expected GDP as yearly growth slowed to 1.3%, slowest yearly rate since 2012
Brexit uncertainty hitting spending and investment
Inflation fell to a two-year low, CPI down to 1.8% from 2.1%

USD

USD strengthened off increased concerns surrounding the U.S-China trade talks
Sustained strength in the core inflation number, up for a 3rd straight month
Retail sales fell 1.2%, with all but 2 of the 13 major retail categories showing a decline

EUR

Industrial production fell among member states at fastest pace since 2008 financial crisis

Week ahead:

GBP: ILO Unemployment Rate; expected to fall to 3.9% from 4%
USD: FOMC Minutes
EUR: ZEW Survery for Economic sentiment (down to -18.4 from -15), German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (staying at 1.7%), Germany Manufacturing PMI (increase to 49.9 from 49.7) & Markit PMI Composite (increase to 51.1 from 51)