Rational Thinking – Strong US Data Helps US Dollar

Last Week

  • UK Services PMI missed expectations with a figure of 50.2
  • 50.2 is very close to the no growth level of 50
  • Follows surveys in manufacturing and construction that also saw contraction
  • Mark Carney warns about increasing risks that come from a no-deal Brexit
  • Carney mentioned that the economy’s underlying growth was running way below its potential


  • Christine Lagarde was nominated for ECB President
  • Ursula von der Leyon was nominated to be Head of the European Commission
  • Oli Rehn stated that slowdown should not be considered a “temporary blip”


  • New orders for U.S. made goods fell for a second straight month
  • The U.S. trade deficit jumped to a 5 month high
  • Very strong Non-Farm Payroll performance, with 224k jobs created
  • Employment rose highest in last 10 months

This Week

  • Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
  • German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Jun); unchanged at 1.3%


  • Jerome Powell speaks three times
  • FOMC Minutes
  • Core Consumer Price Index (MoM); expected to increase to 0.2% from a previous 0.1%
  • Core Consumer Price Index (YoY); expected to remain at 2%