Rational Thinking – No-Deal Fears Leaked

Last Week

  • Employment figures and wage growth both print strong numbers
  • Inflation picked up to 2.1% YoY
  • British 30 year bond yields fell below 1% for the first time on record signalling a recession


  • Italian political crisis
  • Matteo Slavini trying to force a new election citing the current coalition as unworkable
  • No confidence motion has been filed and a new election could be on the cards very soon


  • US-China Trade War
  • CPI rose more than expected
  • US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007 signalling a potential imminent recession

Key Announcements

  • FOMC meeting minutes
  • Jackson Hole Economic Summit


  • French Services PMI
  • French Manufacturing PMI
  • German Services PMI
  • German Manufacturing PMI