GBP

The pound remained at high levels against its G10 peers as investors look towards the Bank of England’s policy meeting to plot their next moves.

Tomorrow will see the BoE hold its Monetary Policy meeting and the markets are expecting a 25 basis point rise up to 0.5%. The main focus will be what is said afterwards rather than what is done.

The BoE are also expected to begin to wind down their bond holdings from early March, however there are still big worries over the current levels of inflation. What concerns the markets is the unknown of how the central bank plans to tackle this, along with the unpredictable speed at which the BoE will raise interest rates in the future.

A recent UK manufacturing survey showed output grew at the fastest pace in six months, backing up the view that the UK economy continues to recover well after the Covid-19 pandemic.

The rumours around Boris Johnson and his potential removal from office are still not having any impact on currency markets. However with most opinion polls showing the British public believing he should resign, we could see volatility further down the line.

USD

The US dollar has fallen for the second consecutive day this week. Weaker than expected data and Federal Reserve officials talking down the prospect of aggressive rate hikes throughout the year weighed on the dollar. Multiple officials spoke on Monday, confirming they intent to vote for a rate hike in March but were cautious for the future.

Key announcements

10.00 – EU – CPI release. Expected to drop to 1.9 from 2.6 previous
13.15 – US – ADP Employment change. Expected to drop to 207k from 807k previous