No Deal Likelihood Jumps


The likelihood Britain and the European Union part ways without a deal has jumped in the past month, according to economists in a Reuters poll, as most candidates jockeying to take over as Prime Minister appear to have adopted a hard line stance.

Boris Johnson has said he would be willing to leave the bloc without a deal, and the median forecast for the chance of a disorderly Brexit jumped to 25% in the June 11-14 Reuters poll, from the 15% given in May.

Johnson, is the current favorite to become the Prime Minister, began his campaign on Wednesday with a pledge to lead Britain out of the EU by October 31 no matter what happens. Johnson said he did not want a no-deal Brexit but he ruled out a further extension beyond the current October 31 deadline.


The dollar strengthened late Friday as U.S. retail sales increased in May and sales for the prior month were revised higher, suggesting a pick-up in consumer spending that could ease fears the economy was slowing down sharply in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.5% last month as households bought more motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Data for April was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.3%, instead of dropping 0.2% as previously reported.

Financial markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts this year, driven primarily by a recent escalation in the trade war between the United States and China, which economists have warned could undercut economic growth.

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