New Covid Measures May Dampen Sterling

This week eyes will now turn to Thursday to see if The Bank of England would deliver a market moving surprise by deciding to raise interest rates but market expectations for the possible hike has slipped significantly over the past two weeks.

The uncertainty surrounding the Omicron variant and the prime minsters decision the tighten Covid restrictions and also advising people to return to work from home from today.

This will certainly provide a reason for the Bank of England to hold off in December and see a move most likely in February as Members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee have signalled clearly that some tightening of monetary policy will be required in the near future.

Also on Friday Weaker than expected UK GDP numbers with the economy growing just 0.1% MoM in October versus forecasts for 0.4% growth and this didn’t seem to cause major moment in sterling euro and will only see a move most likely after Thursdays meeting.

Markets are now pricing in a 38% probability of a 15 basis point rate hike next week during the European morning, compared with 46% on Wednesday and nearly 70% at the start of last week.