EUR
The EUR had a good start to the week, gaining against a host of its major
counterparts. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis said that there will be no
chance of a ‘Grexit’, but is seeking an extended redemption period for Greek
debt, according to reports. However conflicting reports once again from an
unquoted Greek Parliamentary spokesmen stating that Greece will not back down
from what they have said previous in negotiations. Without a cash-for-reforms

EUR
The EUR had a good start to the week, gaining against a host of its major
counterparts. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis said that there will be no
chance of a ‘Grexit’, but is seeking an extended redemption period for Greek
debt, according to reports. However conflicting reports once again from an
unquoted Greek Parliamentary spokesmen stating that Greece will not back down
from what they have said previous in negotiations. Without a cash-for-reforms
debt deal with the EU and IMF, Greece is expected to default on a €1.5bn debt
repayment to the IMF due by the end of the month.

ECB president Draghi also gave a speech yesterday at the European Parliaments
Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, where he mainly focused on the
economic recovery in the Eurozone and the ongoing situation surrounding Greece.
Draghi stated that the economic recovery within the Eurozone is expected to
widen, and that ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) is to be increased as long
as Greek banks remain solvent with enough collateral. He did however state that
Greek leaders have personally given them their word that payments will be made
on the scheduled date and time, and that the IMF think Greece will require
additional funding with the sentiment shared by other lenders.

GBP
The week began with an extremely
quiet day for the pound, with analysts being entirely sentiment driven. This
was realised in the markets with the pound losing half a cent against both of
the EUR and USD during the morning session, with no data to support the pound.
The only notable piece of information concerning the UK was a comment in the
Financial Times, stating that the Scottish National Party has threatened to
call for another vote to break up the UK unless the government agrees to
devolve more powers to Edinburgh. The concern is that with the SNP’s large
presence in Scotland, the opportunity for a split from the UK is more likely
than previous should a referendum take place. 

USD
The dollar had a relatively quiet
start to the week also, heading into the big monetary policy and interest rate
announcement on Wednesday. With the USD gaining ground against both the GBP and
the EUR, this was reversed in the afternoon sessions due to announcements
concerning Europe and weak economic data. The month-on-month industrial
production figures came in at -0.2%, far from the 0.3% that analysts had
expected, and the capacity utilisation (which is a percentage of the US
production capacity which is used over the short-time period) came in at 78.1%
missing the consensus and previous month of 78.3%. The US also sold $48bn worth
of 3 and 6 month bonds, pushing the 3 month yield to 0.01% from a previous of
0.015% and the 6 month yields up to 0.1% from a previous of 0.08%. The only
other notable comment was Barclays increasing their growth outlook for the US
in the second quarter, up 0.1% to 3.3%

Key Announcements

09:30 – GBP – Consumer Price Index (MoM) –
expected to remain at 0.2%

10:00 – EUR – ZEW German economic sentiment

13:30 – USD – Building Permits