Daily Market Report – 15/04/2015

GBP
British consumer price inflation held steady at a record-low zero percent in
March, boosting households’ disposable income before the upcoming May election.
The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.2 percent
between February and March, however compared with a year earlier prices were
unchanged, in line with economists’ forecasts. This leaves inflation well
below the BoE’s 2 percent target and the headline measure calculated to one

GBP
British consumer price inflation held steady at a record-low zero percent in
March, boosting households’ disposable income before the upcoming May election.
The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.2 percent
between February and March, however compared with a year earlier prices were
unchanged, in line with economists’ forecasts. This leaves inflation well
below the BoE’s 2 percent target and the headline measure calculated to one
decimal point is expected to dip below zero.
 
The figures are likely to be welcomed by most Britons in the run-up to May 7’s
closely-fought national election, after years of prices outstripping meagre
growth in wages. The opposition Labour Party has focused heavily on what
it calls a ‘cost of living crisis’, saying that average households are worse
off than when Prime Minister David Cameron came to power in May 2010. The
Conservatives point to rapid economic growth and record employment levels.
  
The sharp fall in inflation has been driven by the slump in oil prices which
took place last year, as well as falls in food prices. But an underlying
measure of inflation Core CPI, which strips out increases in energy, food,
alcohol and tobacco, fell to its lowest level in nearly nine years at 1.0
percent in March compared with 1.2 percent in February.
 
The prospect of falling prices is unlikely to draw a policy response from the
Bank of England, however. BoE Governor Mark Carney told legislators last month
that cutting rates purely in response to falling oil prices would be
“extremely foolish”, and most economists polled by Reuters expect the
next BoE move to be a rate rise early next year.

USD
Sales at U.S. retailers rose less than forecast in March after being depressed
by harsh winter weather, signalling consumers are intent on not overextending
themselves. Purchases increased 0.9 percent, the first gain in four months
after a 0.5 percent drop in February; however fell short of the 1.1 percent
consensus.
 
The figures show Americans remain focused on using the savings at the gas pump
to shore up finances even as employment and confidence firm, and interest rates
remain low. A boost in wage growth may be what’s needed to drive households to
loosen their purse strings and sustain a pickup in growth after a first-quarter
slowdown caused mainly by unusually harsh winter weather. Even though the March
increase was smaller than projected, it was the biggest advance in a year.
  
Another report showed the producer price index rose 0.2 percent in March,
matching the median forecast of economists surveyed, after a 0.5 percent drop
the prior month. Over the past 12 months, wholesale costs fell 0.8 percent. The
PPI excluding food and fuel (Core PPI) also climbed 0.2 percent from a month
earlier.
 
Key Announcements
11:45 – EUR – ECB Decision on Minimum Bid Rate –
Expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%
12:30 – EUR – ECB Press Conference

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