USD 

The dollar gained for a second day versus most of its
major peers after retail sales rose in March by the most since September 2012.
Data today is forecasted to show that manufacturing output increased for the
second month running which could lend towards further US dollar strength. 

USD 

The dollar gained for a second day versus most of its
major peers after retail sales rose in March by the most since September 2012.
Data today is forecasted to show that manufacturing output increased for the
second month running which could lend towards further US dollar strength. 

Adding to this we have March’s inflation figures from the
US, which is expected to show an increase to 1.5% from 1.1%. This could well
indeed add to recent speculation about a rate hike occurring sooner rather than
later in the US.

AUD 

Australia’s dollar fell from near a five-month high after
minutes of the Reserve Bank’s meeting this month reiterated interest rates will
remain on hold for the time being as the economy continues improve.

GBP

In the UK, the Office for National Statistics is expected
to say annual inflation fell to 1.6% in March from 1.7% in February.

A supermarket food price war and lower petrol price
inflation are expected to have bought the headline inflation rate down for the
sixth month running.

A fall in inflation would dampen any prospect of a rate
hike occurring in the UK.

Data on Wednesday is expected to confirm the first rise
in real pay for UK workers in four years.

If confirmed this would suggest wages are now rising
faster than prices of goods and services.

Today

As well as the inflation figures coming out from the UK and
the US we are expecting data out of the Eurozone showing that the trade balance
is expected to show an increase in surplus to €8.5bn and the ZEW survey of economic
sentiment from both Germany and the Eurozone.

Key Announcements:

9.30am – GBP – Consumer Price Index (Mar): Expected to show
a fall to 1.6%.

10.00am – EUR – Trade Balance (Feb): Expected to show a
surplus of €8.5bn.

10.00am – EUR – ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment: Expected
to come in at 46.