Daily Market News 31 Mar 2011

 

Yesterday’s market movers

• UK Index of Services (3M/3M) and CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realized (MoM) came out positively and supported Sterling against US dollar and Euro in the morning.

• EMU released the Industrial Confidence, Economic Confidence and Consumer Confidence. Only Industrial Confidence increased while the others are not positive. Euro lost the momentum and failed keeping 1.41 against US dollar.

• In the afternoon, US ADP Employment Change fell at 201K from the previous 217K. The market consensus was 205K as a negative outlook for the employment situation. However, the worse than expected data might indicate a pessimistic Nonfarm Payroll figure tomorrow. US dollar gained comparably across the board as a result from risk aversion.

 

Today’s market movers

• Early morning German Retail Sales MoM and YoY showed a bad performance of the retail sector in February, both of which turned out to be worse than previous. Given the high inflation, the low spending ability of the major EU economy is bearish for the Euro if you need to make international payments.

• Later UK Nationwide Housing Prices s.a MoM and YoY illustrated a significant growth in the housing market in March. Both figures are not only better than expectation but positive as well. (MoM was 0.5% with expectation -0.10%, and previous 0.30% and YoY was 0.1%, with expectation -0.60%, and previous -0.10%). The news supported sterling shortly.

• Mixed data is due from EU: German Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change are due to come out at 8.55am. The rate is predicted to decrease 0.1% while the Change is predicted to be better than the previous. EMU will give out CPI figure later as well. The markets keep holding the Euro and look for more indications.

• Bank of England will release the Credit Conditions Report, which studies the risk attitude of the U.K. banks towards individuals and businesses. It also shows the affordability of the entities to borrow from bank. This could affect the Monetary policy since we need the evidence of people spending and borrowing to see the possibility of interest rate rise.

• We will have mixed data coming out from US as well: Initial Jobless Claims are due to have a different result from the ADP released yesterday according to the analysts. The prediction is 380k, better than the previous 382k. Factory Orders is estimated to have a fall to 0.50% from 3.10%. Again, we need bigger indications to move the market while holding the position.