21/11/2018 – No-Confidence Vote Mandate Fizzles Out

GBP

Yesterday news emerged of companies triggering plans to keep operating if Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement. A “no deal” scenario the Bank of England said could plunge the economy into a crisis not seen since the 1970s.

Theresa May won the backing of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who warned that a no-deal Brexit could hit the economy in a way not seen since the oil crisis that pushed many western nations into recession just after Britain had joined what is now the EU in 1973.

The prime minister may have hoped opposition to what is a draft divorce deal with the EU would fade after an attempt to unseat her by pro-Brexit Conservatives seemed to be fizzling out.

May has warned lawmakers they have a simple choice: back her deal or risk ushering in a no deal departure, a delay to Brexit or possibly no Brexit at all.

Carney, who angered many Brexit campaigners by warning of the hit to economic growth from the decision to leave the EU, was also keen to illustrate the risks if the deal were voted down in parliament.

USD

The dollar rallied from a two-week low on Tuesday as a sell-off in world stock markets spurred safe-haven bids and investors worried about slowing global growth.

Earlier, cautious comments overnight by Federal Reserve officials about the global economic outlook knocked the dollar to two-week troughs as it suggested the Fed could slow the pace of raising interest rates or that the tightening cycle is ending.

The euro also gave up its gains, spooked by a slide in European equities. Italian bank shares hit a two-year low and Italian bonds sold off again amid a continuing confrontation with the European Union over Rome’s budget plans.

Key Announcements

13.30 – USD: Core Durable Goods Orders MoM; Forecast at 0.4% against previous of 0%