Daily Market Report 01/09/15

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Saturday that a slowdown in China's economy could push down further on inflation but it did not change, for now, the central bank's position on when and how it might increase interest rates. Speaking at an annual U.S. central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Carney reiterated his view that the recovery in Britain's economy "will likely put the decision as to when to start the process of gradual monetary policy normalization into sharper relief around the turn of this year."

Manufacturers are increasing their vigilance in key markets in light of growing risks and uncertainty in the global economy, according to a new survey of almost 300 companies published today by EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation. The survey showed that 47% of companies are concerned about the possible sharp slowdown in China, of which 10% are reviewing their business plans.

German retail sales beat expectations, gaining 3.3 per cent year-on-year despite eurozone confidence being shaken by the Greek debt crisis. Economists were forecasting a growth of just 1.7 per cent so Germany’s bullish sales figures come close to doubling expectations.

Monthly figures showed retail sales jumping by 1.4 per cent from June to July, according to figures released by Germany’s statistical office Destatis. The latest data will be a welcome break from the turmoil in Greece has put on the country’s economic growth.

Figures last week showed Germany’s personal consumption growth was just 0.2 per cent, the weakest growth in four quarters. CPI figures released from the Eurozone yesterday were also an improvement. With the YoY CPI Figure coming in at 0.2% against a 0.1% consensus which is now in line with the previous month, and the Core CPI remaining unchanged at 1%, in line with expectations.

As Janet Yellen did not attend the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers last week, all eyes were on other attending fed members to gauge any hints of possible rate hikes in the future. This past weekend seemed to indicate that the rumored September rate hike hasn’t been ruled out, even with bankers hoping that the hike would be delayed until early next year.

Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice chairman, stated that it was “too early to tell” whether there’s a compelling case for a September rate hike. Still, in a speech on Saturday, he noted that inflation is still below the Fed’s goal of 2 percent, a rate determined best for “price stability and maximum employment.” However, Fischer closed his statements by stating that “because monetary policy influences real activity with a substantial lag, we should not wait until inflation is back to 2 percent to begin tightening.” Which effectively is a signal that rates can be raised even before the inflation of target of 2% is met. 

.Key Announcements

10:00 – EUR : Unemployment Rate – expected to remain unchanged at 11.1%
15:00 – USD : ISM Manufacturing PMI – expected to decrease from 52.6 from 52.7 previous.