Daily Market News 12 July 2011

Yesterday’s market movers

  • There was no fundamental data in significance from either EU or the US.
  • Only piece of UK data overnight is the RICS house price which came in slightly worse than the expectation but still better than the previous. This failed to support GBPUSD at 1.59 level.

Today’s market movers

  • We are expecting Germany CPI YoY keep stable at 2.3%, with 0.1% increase MoM for June. This can contributed to the EU interest rate increase last Friday, showing the necessity of the increase. It is hard to say if it is going to support Euro from the plummet, giving the concerns about debt crisis spreading to Italy - is more significant than the other news.
  • UK Trade Balance and Goods Trade Balance in June are due to come in with a little improvement according to the market consensus. Meanwhile, the important CPI figure are expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%, however, Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1%. Obviously, if the Core CPI, which calculates the index more accurate increases, we might see the BoE interest rate hike process being accelerated. Hence, a potential growing Sterling will possibly be seen.
  • In the US, Trade Balance in May is predicted to decrease slightly from the previous. Later FOMC minutes are due to release. We had dollar weakness from the labour market last week. However, the dollar performed better than the euro and Sterling. It will be interesting to see what FOMC will affect the market.