Daily Market Report 31/05/16

GBP

According to a poll released by the Observer newspaper on Sunday nine out of ten of Britain's top economists working in London's City financial district, small business and academia believe the economy will be harmed if Britain leaves the EU. The poll found that 88 percent of those asked said an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain's growth prospects over the next five years and 82 percent said there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes, whilst 61% also think unemployment would rise.

Just 4% of respondents who thought Brexit would most likely have a negative impact on GDP over the initial five years think it would have a positive effect over the longer term. The main reasons given by economists as to why the UK would suffer were loss of access to the single market (67%) and increased uncertainty leading to reduced investment (66%).
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USD

On Friday, preliminary GDP figures were released from the US. These came in below expectations, at 0.6% for Q1 as opposed to 0.7%. However, on Monday St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said global markets appear to be well-prepared for a summer interest rate hike from the Fed, although he did not specify a date for the policy move. Bullard added a rebound in U.S. GDP growth seems to be materializing in the second quarter, but reserved his opinion on whether the Fed should hike in June or July for the next policy meeting at the U.S. central bank.

 

EUR

Greece has told its European and International Monetary Fund creditors it cannot implement some of the extra changes sought in exchange for fresh bailout loans. Last week, after months of negotiations, Greece and its lenders concluded a key bailout review, opening the way for debt relief that Greece has long desired. The lenders also gave the green light for the disbursement of 10.3 billion euros in tranches, on condition that Athens amends some recent laws concerning pensions, privatizations and freeing up the sale of bad loans. However, the disagreement could further delay the release of the bailout funds which Athens needs to pay off IMF loans in June, bonds of the European Central Bank maturing in July and increasing state arrears.

 

Key Announcements

10:00 – EUR: Unemployment Rate expected to stay the same at 10.2%

10:00 – EUR: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May) expected to rise from -0.2% to 0.1%

15:00 – USD: Consumer Confidence expected to rise to 96 from 94.2