from the Office for National Statistics is set to reveal that economic growth
probably accelerated to its fastest pace in more than three years in the third
quarter as the recovery continued to gather pace.
GDP is expected to rise to 0.8% from the second quarter, up from 0.7% in the previous period and the biggest increase since the second quarter of 2010. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be presenting new quarterly forecasts on November 13th and there are growing expectations that the BoE members will have to accept that interest rates may have to increase earlier than the initial 2016 forecast. Carney said yesterday there was “traction” in the economy.
Strong job creation over the summer, has cut the jobless rate to 7.7% from 7.8% which has surprised Bank of England officials, meaning that they may have to revise their forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation.
The US dollar slid to a fresh two-year low versus the euro before reports today forecast to show differing stances in confidence in the U.S. and Europe.
New Zealand’s dollar weakened against all its major peers after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled hesitation to raise interest rates. Central bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said in an interview with Radio New Zealand that increasing interest rates “would put upward pressure on the exchange rate and damage our traded goods sector.”
In Japan, inflation rose to 0.8% in August; the fastest pace since November 2008.
Takuji Okubo, the chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo. “If the Japanese economy can keep growing, say for another 12 months, there’s a very good chance Japan can be on a very good track of eliminating deflation.”
This morning German business sentiment data failed to live up to expectations, falling below the previous month in September.
The afternoon will bring US durable goods orders as well as the already mentioned consumer sentiment figures for the US for October.
13.30pm – USD – Durable Goods Orders (Sep): Expected to rise to 2%.
14.55pm – USD – Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct): Expected to fall to 75.