Daily Market Report - 25/07/2014

Retail sales figures released show that shops have enjoyed their strongest trading quarter in a decade, with volumes up by 1.6% in April-June compared to the previous three months.

The June figure was below expectations showing growth of just 0.1%figures were below expectations and the pound was sold off immediately after the news was released. 

Yesterday The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global economic growth this year but upgraded the UK again. The IMF now expects the global economy will growth by 3.4% this year, down from 3.7% back in April. They now expect UK growth of 3.2% this year, up from 2.8% that had been previously forecast. 

The IMF says four negative surprises have hit the world economy in recent months with the US, Russia, China and other emerging markets all disappointing it blamed a weak first quarter in which the US economy contracted, and a less optimistic outlook for several emerging market economies. 

The IMF also warned that increased geopolitical risks could hurt the global economy, by driving oil prices sharply higher.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits has hit its lowest level since early 2006, as the US labour market continues to improve. Initial claims for unemployment benefit slid by 19,000 last week to 284,000, the lowest level in eight years

Markit's US manufacturing PMI came in at 56.3 in July, down from June's 57.3, easing off the 49 month high. Factories reported that output grew strongly. However, new export order growth remained subdued and employment growth slowed

This positive data was a catalyst for dollar strength in the afternoon session, touching close to a one month high against most of its major peers.

In Europe the July purchasing manufacturing index picked up from 52.8 to 54 with Germany leading the way with a score of 55.9. However a sluggish performance from France weighed down on the overall Eurozone score with French PMI showing a contraction of 49.4.

The French economy was dragged down by weakness in the manufacturing industry which offset a small improvement in the service sector. 

Key Announcements:
09:30 - BST - GBP - Q2 GDP expected to come in at 0.8%
13:30 - BST - USD - Durable goods orders (June) expected to be higher 0.6%

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