Yesterday there was a comprehensive study run by Natcen Social Research suggesting that 49% are in favour of leaving whereas 51% are in favour of remaining; the figure is calculated by taking the average figure based on the last 6 polls conducted in the UK. However with those undecided taken into account, it is also clear many people are not yet sure how they will vote today with up to 13% of voters are still unsure on their decision. Many book makers are still placing a 75% probability that the UK will remain.
It is expected to be a turbulent night tonight across financial markets with the first referendum results expected to be released by midnight tonight. Results will come in throughout the night with the electoral commission expecting the final count to be complete by 7 am Friday morning.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi did not overly encourage investors with his latest pledge to support growth in the Eurozone, particularly as he reiterated the need for fiscal reform to complement monetary stimulus measures. Some optimism came in the form of the German (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Survey, which unexpectedly strengthened from 6.4 to 19.2 in June, although the impact of this stronger showing was limited. The Consumer Confidence figure for June was also released yesterday coming in lower than markets anticipated at -7.3 however markets movement were minimal.
09:00 – EUR: Market Manufacturing PMI (Jun) expected to be unchanged 51.5
13:30 – USD: Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 10) Expected to be lower than previous 2.150M
00:00 – GBP: EU Referendum first results released