The US dollar continued to gain yesterday after data showed that the number of people filing for jobless claims didn’t rise as much as expected – the rise was only 5,000 instead of 12,000.
Adding to this we saw the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey reveal an improvement in figures up to 9 in February from -6.3 in January.
The US dollar as a result reached a 2 ½ week high against the euro and a 6 week high against the pound.
Whilst the reaction from the markets following the comments about a possible rise in interest rates occurring within the next year in the US, may well be an exaggeration; the possibility and continued speculation surrounding a rate hike could well drive the US dollar stronger.
The Indian rupee rebounded from its biggest drop since January on optimism that a recovering economy will attract inflows even if the US keeps cutting stimulus.
Reports this month showed that Inflation in India is easing and industrial production is picking up and whilst there may be an economic slowdown in China, India is less exposed and thus the slowdown shouldn’t effect India as much as the other Asian economies
Foreign funds have pumped US$3 billion into Indian stocks and bonds this month – a clear indication of confidence coming back into the economy.
As a result, further upside on GBPINR could well be limited.
Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher speaks today about US monetary policy in London today and we also have latest retail sales and inflation data from Canada.
12.30pm – CAD – Consumer Price Index (Feb): Expected to decline to 0.9%.
12.30pm – CAD – Retail Sales (Jan): Expected to increase to 0.7%.