Daily Market Report 15/11/2013

GBP

Main data out from the UK yesterday was the retail figures. Year on Year figures came in at 1.8%, which was a sharp drop from the forecast of 3.1%. Month on Month we have seen sales fall by 0.7%. This shows that consumer spending has dropped off considerably over the last month.

Bank of England Markets Director Paul Fisher said the U.K.’s trade deficit is inconsistent with a stronger pound exchange rate.

“We are still, as a nation, running a large deficit in terms of our external trade,” Fisher said in an interview on BBC Radio Five Live today. “That’s not consistent with a stronger exchange rate. A stronger exchange rate in the long run makes us all better off. In the short run, a stronger exchange rate discourages exports.”

EUR

GDP Figures were released yesterday for the Eurozone area, with a 0.1% per cent growth recorded. This is a drop from 0.3% from the previous quarter.

Several economies in the Euro area actually shrank in the 3rd quarter, most notably France and Italy, whose economies contracted 0.1%.

Greece shrank by -0.3% which is an improvement on the previous quarters loss of -3.8%

Germany grew by 0.3%, however, this was quite a large slowdown from 0.7% in the previous quarter.

Spain saw growth of 0.2%.

These GDP figures seem to back up Draghi’s decision to cut interest rates in the area to try and stimulate growth.

USA

Janet Yellen spoke yesterday and signalled her intentions for when she is elected Fed Chairman. She says she will carry on with the banks quantitative easing programme until she sees an improvement in the USA economy.

Also trade balance statistics showed an increase of –US$41.7B from an expectation of –US$39B, with exports declining for the 3rd month in a row.

Today

Final reading for Eurozone inflation figures are due for release this morning, with expectations that the rate has fallen to 0.7%. This will solidify Draghi’s decision to cut interest rates in the Eurozone.

Industrial production for the US is expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.6%.

Key Announcements:

10.00am – EUR – Consumer Price Index (Oct): Expected to be revised lower to 0.7%.

13.30pm – USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov): Expected to increase to 5.00.

14.15pm – USD – Industrial Production (Oct): Expected to slow to 0.2%.