Last week was largely unaffected by fundamental data from the UK which left the pound at the mercy of its peers. However the dollars momentum over the last 2 weeks was swiftly halted as the Federal Reserve stated that a reduction in their quantitative easing would not be happening as soon as analysts previously expected placing the reason for this on the US jobs market. This allowed the pound to recover to a position above the significant 1.50 level.
However the euro continued to strengthen against the pound reaching a 4 month low on the 10th July. This week will be looking for more indications that the UK economy is performing well and building on its fragile economic recovery.
We have already seen early news this week that China’s economy is slowing down more than expected by posting a plethora of data including GDP at 7.6% in Q2 compared to an expected 7.7 % and a fall in their industrial production. As this news filters into the markets risk appetite and the subsequent movements of typical safe havens i.e. the US dollar, will be closely watched.
The UK will post inflation data, jobs figures and the Bank of England’s minutes from Mark Carney’s first MPC meeting 2 weeks ago. The minutes will certainly be in focus as investors look for hints as to how the 9 members of the MPC will have voted in light of Carney’s arrival.
Other key data from the markets this week include Ben Bernanke speaking on Wednesday with his Semi-Annual Policy Report to the Senate and G20 ministers meeting in Russia on Friday.
13.30pm – USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul): Expected to reduce to 5.00.
13.30pm – USD – Retail Sales (Jun): Expected to improve 0.8%.