Despite economic data proving to be subordinate with the impending EU referendum, the consumer price index was released yesterday and came out slightly worse than expected at 0.3%. Furthermore, the Office for National Statistics released Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for May. The results came out very strong with an increase of 2.6% against a forecasted 0.9%.
Over the last few months retail sales have proved to be very positive. In April, sales grew by 1.3% which was the biggest gain in a year. Yesterday, figures released showed that during the month of May sales increased by more than forecast at 0.5%; meaning that consumer spending will help prop up economic growth in the second quarter of this year.
Europe's largest economy Germany, saw their 10-year government bund fall below zero for the first time since records started as investors seek safe haven assets. This means Germany has joined the likes of Switzerland and Japan being seen as a safe haven. This could stem from the ECB’s policy of negative interest rates and asset purchasing program, along with a global slowdown and the UK’s Brexit.
Gold prices have strengthened significantly over the last few weeks, with there being a strong negative correlation between Brexit polls and gold prices. As, recent polls have seen an increase in support for the leave campaign, gold prices have risen sharply by almost one per cent last month.
09:30 – GBP: Average Earnings Index 3m/y expected to fall to 1.7%
09:30 – GBP: Claimant Count Change expected to increase to -0.1K
13.30 – USD: PPI m/m expected to increase to 0.3%
14.15 – USD: Industrial Production m/m expected to fall to -0.2%
15:30 – USD: Crude Oil Inventories
19:00 – USD: Federal open Market Committee (FOMC) Economic Projections, Statement & Funds Rate
19:30 – USD: FOMC Conference