The dollar gained for a second day versus most of its major peers after retail sales rose in March by the most since September 2012. Data today is forecasted to show that manufacturing output increased for the second month running which could lend towards further US dollar strength.
Adding to this we have March’s inflation figures from the US, which is expected to show an increase to 1.5% from 1.1%. This could well indeed add to recent speculation about a rate hike occurring sooner rather than later in the US.
Australia’s dollar fell from near a five-month high after minutes of the Reserve Bank’s meeting this month reiterated interest rates will remain on hold for the time being as the economy continues improve.
In the UK, the Office for National Statistics is expected to say annual inflation fell to 1.6% in March from 1.7% in February.
A supermarket food price war and lower petrol price inflation are expected to have bought the headline inflation rate down for the sixth month running.
A fall in inflation would dampen any prospect of a rate hike occurring in the UK.
Data on Wednesday is expected to confirm the first rise in real pay for UK workers in four years.
If confirmed this would suggest wages are now rising faster than prices of goods and services.
As well as the inflation figures coming out from the UK and the US we are expecting data out of the Eurozone showing that the trade balance is expected to show an increase in surplus to €8.5bn and the ZEW survey of economic sentiment from both Germany and the Eurozone.
9.30am – GBP – Consumer Price Index (Mar): Expected to show a fall to 1.6%.
10.00am – EUR – Trade Balance (Feb): Expected to show a surplus of €8.5bn.
10.00am – EUR – ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment: Expected to come in at 46.