Daily Market Report - 14/11/2014

EUR
Yesterday forecasters cut their outlook for Euro zone inflation and growth, underlining a trend that could prompt the European Central Bank to take more action to kick-start the region's flagging economy. The 61 economists, academics and others surveyed by the ECB expect euro zone inflation of 1.0 percent next year and 1.4 percent in 2016 down from earlier forecasts of 1.2 percent and 1.5 percent respectively. Citing falling oil prices and widespread political tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, they also predicted growth in economic output would slow to 1.2 percent next year, having previously forecast 1.5 percent.

Reports out early this morning have shown the German economy has narrowly avoided recession, growing 0.1% in the third quarter, with the economy contracting to 0.1% in the April-to-May quarter, another negative figure would have meant Germany entering recession. The French economy grew faster than economists forecast in the third quarter as domestic demand helped it bounce back from a contraction in the previous three months.

Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in the three months through September, the most in more than a year. The performance indicates the 18-nation Euro area received a boost from its second-biggest economy in the quarter as the European Central Bank adds stimulus to kick start expansion in the region. It also makes it more likely that President Francois Hollande’s government will achieve its full-year growth target of 0.4 percent.

USD
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits rose more than forecast last week, representing a pause from a recent run of readings close to a 14-year low. Jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 290,000 in the week ended Nov. 8, the highest since Sept. 20, Lines at state unemployment agencies have been shrinking this year as businesses hold the line on dismissals and take on more workers as sales advance. Better employment prospects have helped bolster consumer confidence and sustained spending as the holiday shopping season gets under way.

Key Announcements:
10:00 EUR: Eurozone Q3 GDP expected to show 0.7% increase
13:30 USD: Retail Sales (Oct) Expected to increase from -0.3% to 0.2%
14:55 USD: Consumer sentiment Index (Nov) Expected to increase from 86.9 to 87.5

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