U.K. industrial production was unchanged in August as shut downs at some North Sea facilities sent oil and gas extraction down 1.7 percent. The industrial output figure, matched the median forecast of economists. Manufacturing production rose 0.1 percent from July, also in line with forecasts.
Bank of England officials led by Governor Mark Carney begin their monthly policy meeting in London today after data last week showed the recovery from the recession has been stronger than previously estimated. There have been some signs of a slowdown recently, with a manufacturing index by Markit Economics falling to a 17-month low in September. Industrial production is still 9.6 percent below its pre-recession peak in the first quarter of 2008. Manufacturing is 4.4 percent below its high point in the same period
Economists fear that Germany is sliding into recession, after industrial production across Europe’s largest economy tumbled by an alarming 4.0% in August, compared with July. It’s the biggest monthly fall since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ collapse sent shock waves through the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund also downgraded its outlook for global economic growth, citing persistent weakness in the Eurozone and a broad slowdown in several major emerging markets. The IMF marked down prospects in the Eurozone’s three largest economies, Germany, France and Italy. The fund warned that the probability of the Eurozone re-entering a recession in the next six months has roughly doubled since the IMF’s April outlook to 38%.
IMF Chief Economists Oliver Blanchard identified three key risks to the global economy two of these are closely related to the Eurozone Geopolitical risks have become “more relevant”. The IMF thinks that the Ukraine crisis has not yet) had measurable effects beyond the affected countries and their immediate neighbours and that the Middle East turmoil has not yet driven up oil prices. Blanchard also fears there is a strong risk of a stalling of the recovery in the euro area, dragging it into deflation
The US job opening Survey (Jolts) for August also released and revealed there were 4.8 million job openings on the last business day of August. Up from 4.6 million in July the highest level of job openings since January 2001.
US consumer credit failed to meet expectations for August and increased far less than expected. Consumer credit rose to 13.5 Billion , experts had expected growth of 20 Billion. New York Federal Reserve President believes it is still too premature to begin raising interest rates as he feels there is still too much slack in the labour market and the inflation rate is too low. He believes a a rate rise could be on the cards by mid 2015.
19:00 - BST - USD: US Federal Reserve minutes released.
21:30 BST - USD: Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is making a speech
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