Daily Market Report - 01/10/2014

Yesterday The Office for National Statistics revised up its estimate for GDP growth in the April-June quarter to +0.9%, from 0.8% previously. The ONS reported that output in Britain’s services industry rose by 1.1% in the second quarter, the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2011. GDP is now 2.7% above the pre-economic downturn level seen back in 2009.

The property market also appears to be giving some hope to first time buyers with house price growth slowing in September. The nationwide house price index fell 0.2% from August to September, this figure marked the first monthly fall in the index for 17 months. It seems banks tighter lending criteria and the prospect of an interest rate rises dampening demand.  

German unemployment unexpectedly rose for a second month as seasonal factors combined with economic risks from the Ukraine crisis to a faltering euro-area recovery. The number of people out of work climbed a seasonally adjusted 12,000 to 2.92 million in September Economists forecast a decline of 2,000. While this is a disappointing figure the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the lowest level in more than two decades.

Pressure continues to mounting on the European Central Bank to take fresh action after inflation in the euro area fell to just 0.3% this month, and core inflation weakened to 0.7%. Off the back of this the euro fell to fresh two-year lows against both the US dollar and the pound, as the market anticipates more easing from the ECB

Unemployment remained unchanged at 11.5 across the single currency region, while slightly better than the 12% set last year the figure is still far to high. And as usual, there are sharp differences between Member States The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria (4.7%) and Germany (4.9%), according to Eurostat’s methodology and the highest in Greece (27.0% in June 2014) and Spain (24.4%).

In the US consumer confidence hit a four month low. The Confidence Board’s monthly survey of morale dipped to 86.0 from 93.4 in August with Consumers saying they were more worried about job prospects and likely future economic conditions.

Key Announcements:
09:00 BST – EUR :Eurozone Markit PMI manufacturing (Sept) Expected to fall from 50.7 to 50.5
09:30 BST- GBP : UK Markit PMI manufacturing (Sept) Expected to fall remain flat at 52.5
13:15 BST- USD: ADP unemployment change (Sept) expected to be lower to 200K from 204K
15:00 BST- USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI( Sept) expected to fall from 59 to 58

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