Daily Market Report – 02/07/2014

EUR
Eurozone unemployment rate came in at 11.6%  for the month of May slightly lower than the last months reading of 11.7%. The jobless data shows a big difference between member states. Austria was the country with the lowest rate, at 4.7%, followed by Germany and Malta.

The highest rates were again in Greece (26.8% in March 2014) and Spain (25.1%).With such a divergence in the economic health of some of these member states it makes implementing monetary policy difficult for the European Central Bank.

According to Eurostat there were 18.552 million people out of work in the eurozone in May, which means 28,000 people found a job during the month. Over the last year unemployment is down by 636,000 which highlights that many millions of people have not yet benefited from the recovery and the more accommodative monetary policy implemented by the ECB last month.

More bad news for France, as manufacturing PMI has fallen to a six-month low as activity declined at a faster rate. The final French PMI dropped to 48.2 this month -- down from 49.6 in May, which means that business conditions have deteriorated at the fastest rate so far this year.

The German manufacturing PMI fell to 52, down from 52.4. That still shows expansion, but at the slowest rate since October 2011. This is not great news for  the Eurozone’s two largest economies as business conditions deteriorate. 

GBP
The UK factory PMI jumped to a seven-month high of 57.5 in June showing that growth accelerated from the already strong 57.0 recorded in May.Order inflows strengthened as demand improves in domestic and export markets, job creation is also at 39-month high led by rising head counts among small firms. 

This positive data sent  the pound to the highest point against the dollar since October 2008 as this news increases the probability of an interest rate rise in the UK before the end of this year.

USD
Manufacturing growth was virtually static in June where there were expectations of a slight improvement. The ISM index of factory activity was 55.3 last month, compared to 55.4 in May and forecasts of an increase to 55.8.

Meanwhile construction spending rose 0.1% in May, according to the Commerce Department, lower than the expected 0.5% increase that economists has predicted.

Key Announcements:
10:00- EUR- Eurozone Q1 GDP final figure expected to be unchanged at 0.2%
13:15- USD- ADP unemployment change expected to be better at 209K from 179k
16:00- USD- US Federal reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech

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