Daily Market Report – 01/07/2014

GBP
Yesterday mortgage approvals fell to an 11 month low confirming that the lending market was already losing some steam before last week’s new Bank of England curbs.

The bank reported yesterday that there were 61,707 mortgage approvals in the month, an 18.7% decline from their recent peak in January and the lowest monthly figure since June 2013.

Ratings agency Fitch expect strong growth of 3% in the UK this year, slowing to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016.  Investment Bank Goldman Sachs have upgraded their forecast for UK economic growth with their analysts predicting GDP growth of 3.4% revised higher from a previous forecast of 3.0%

EUR
Inflation in the Eurozone remained unchanged at 0.5% in June. It is the ninth month running that Eurozone inflation has been below the target of just below 2%. 

There is one sign that the Eurozone is moving away from deflation with core inflation (which strips out volatile measures such as food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) moving up to 0.8% from 0.7% previously.

Food, drink, and tobacco prices across the Eurozone have actually fallen by 0.2% this month compared with June 2013. The price of manufactured goods were flat, year-on-year, and energy prices crept higher. Inflation in the service sector picked up, to 1.3% in June compared to 1.1% the previous month.

USD
Ratings agency Fitch  have cut their forecast for growth in the US this year to just 2%, from 2.8%, having seen the unexpectedly deep fall in GDP in the first three months of the year. Also pending Home sales in the US hit an 8 month high, its highest level since September.

Key Announcements:
8:30 – GBP - Markit Manufacturing for June, expected to fall to 56.8
9:00 – EUR - Unemployment Rate for May expected to be unchanged at 11.7%
13:45 – USD – ISM manufacturing index June expected to be higher at 55.9 

Our dealers are available via e-mail (dealers@rationalfx.com) or by phone (0207 220 8181).