01/03/2017 - Trump Softens Stance on Immigration

USD

In his speech, President Donald Trump has told Congress he is open to immigration reform, in a marked shift from his harsh rhetoric on illegal immigration. He still pledged to build a wall on the US border with Mexico, but made no mention of Mexico paying for it, and again highlighted that "America is willing to find new friends, and to forge new partnerships, where shared interests align." Trump’s speech was once again low on the specifics regarding how he will achieve his agenda, including commitment to healthcare overhaul, broad tax cuts and a $1 trillion public-private initiative to rebuild degraded roads and bridges.

Following on from Trump’s speech, the odds of an increase in March for U.S. interest rates rose to more than 60 percent, pushing up the dollar.

Growth in the U.S. economy in the final quarter of 2016 was left unchanged at 1.9%, held down by a bigger trade deficit although consumer spending did rebound strongly. Economists expected the measure of the US economy to increase to 2.1%.

The government’s second look at gross domestic product in the fourth quarter showed a bigger increase in purchases by consumers than initially reported at 2.5% but now printing an increase of  3.0%. What Americans spend has the biggest influence by far on GDP accounting for close to 70% of GDP. Yet the increase in what consumers spent was offset by somewhat smaller gains in business investment and local and state spending, revised government figures reveal.

Manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area unexpectedly fell in January, nearing the mark for stagnation and dampening optimism over the U.S. economic outlook, industry data showed on Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Chicago purchasing managers’ index decreased by 4.3 points to a seasonally adjusted 50.3 this month from a reading of 54.6 in December. That was its lowest reading since May 2016.

Key Announcements

09:30 – GBP : Manufacturing PMI, expected at 55.7 against a previous 55.9
15:00 – USD : ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 56.2 against a previous 56.0
15:30 – USD : Crude oil inventories, expected at 1.5M against a previous of 0.6M